Saturday, June 7, 2008

My New Year Predictions

In my New Year Prediction for the Year of the Rat, I wrote:

1. Hilary Clinton will be the next US President. When she sees a rat, she will scream with tears in her eyes. Women will give her their votes because they also scream when they see a rat. Men will also give her their votes because they want to protect the fair sex.

This one is wrong. What excuse do I give? Well, she did get the votes from women. However, the young people do not like women screaming because of a rat. They think there is no excuse for women to show weakness against a rat. Therefore, she lost. I overlooked the influence of young people today in politics.

As for the other predictions, they were amazingly accurate although it was all meant for a joke.

2. Oil prices will reach $120 a barrel - because the rats steal too much oil making the supply tight. (This was too conservative.)

3. The world economy will be gloomy - more people will be as poor as a church mouse. (It will be more visible towards the end of the year when the rat is most active.)

4. There will be serious earth quakes as the rats are more active underground disturbing the earth. (I wish it was wrong.)

5. There will be more break-in because of the more activities of rats (Chinese call thieves "rats") . (I also wish it was wrong but it is likely to be true. So, take care.)

Don't take it serious when someone brags about how accurate their predictions are. New Year forecasts are nothing more than entertainment - they should be written in an entertaining way so that people know what they are supposed to be.


4 comments: said...

Hi Joseph,

Many times more can be learned from looking back on past predictions.

As for pred #1.
Back in January some 90% of astrologers were predicting that H. Clinton would become the new US president, also in the Western astrology community.
This made me wonder if their predictions were actually based on their astrology, or rather on the common sense opinion as shown in newspapers and opinion polls back then.
If the opinion polls in January had shown Obama as the favorite, then would 90% of astrologers have tipped on Clinton? I don't think so..

Pretty much same with pred. #3
At the end of last year it was already a concensus opinion that economy would be weak for this year, and banks were deeply in trouble already.
But actually I don't see it. From Brazil to Russia to China economies are still booming, more people getting out of poverty. Countries that have commodities to sell are making more money than ever, they don't know what to do with all the dollars..
The main exception is the USA, where people have gone too deep into debt.
But even there the mood has improved since January. Now only 30% people think the country will have a recession, while last January some 70% were pessimistic.
(see: , which has the best ongoing poll system).

Pred. #4 was meaningless, because there are earthquakes every year.
Wikipedia lists major earthquakes from the past century, and there is no relationship with Rat or other years.
We can already predict quakes for each of the next 12 years, next year because the Ox stamps his heavy feet, then next because the Tiger roars, and then because the Rabbit makes holes in the ground, and so on..
As entertainment it is OK, but we can hardly talk about good predictions when it is something that happens somewhere on the planet almost every year.

Pred. #5
Have you seen any reports that there is more break-in this year?
If anything I see news about declining burglary.
More cheap alarm systems (using camera and internet) have become more common, even here in my remote area, and the thieves seem to know it...

Pred #2 has worked out.


We can do predictions for entertainment, there is no harm in it.
Still it is probably a good question to think about: what will be a good prediction.?
It somehow has to depend how likely the predicted event was, at the moment the prediction was done.

There is also what we call: predicting rain in Britain.


Joseph Yu said...

Dear Danny,

The best entertainment is for the eyes and ears, not for the brain. An accurate prediction is just like a clown that can make people laugh. It has its values though.

JY said...

> An accurate prediction is just like a clown that can make people laugh. It has its values though.

Hi Joseph,

Aren't we proving that this type of predictions have no value whatsoever, for "entertainment purposes only" ??

I offered exactly the opposite predictions as you did, just for entertainment purpose, also blaming or crediting the Rat for it.

I can now make a similar good looking review after 6 months. How amazingly accurate it was:

Pred1: Clinton will not be elected because people want a man to catch the Rat. Is proven very correct already.
Pred2: Predicted falling oil price. This prediction was bad, oil has gone up further so far, but it may become more clear by the end of the year..
Pred3: Improving outlook for economy. So far the (widely expected) global recession has been avoided, and the US home sales started going up last month. Further improvement will be more clear by the end of the year..
Pred4: I predicted problems with dikes giving in. Did you see the floods in the USA? (Wish I had been wrong about this..)
Pred5: Less stealing.. So far we have not seen any news about major robbery or higher break-in rates.. Looks correct so far..


So this is the point (or entertainment if you want): we both made opposite predictions, we both blamed or credited the Rat for it, and now after just 6 months we can both easily spin it in such a way that our jokes look like pretty accurate predictions in 4 cases out of the 5 (and the other one pending end of the year..).
Interesting? Funny? Both??...

It's too easy.
If only we make predictions that are vague enough, and squeeze in a few that are very likely to come true (like earthquakes or floods.., but of course without saying *where* they will happen), then it will always look good at the end of the year.
And if we present it as "entertainment only", then it is even more safe: if a prediction goes wrong we can say it was just a joke...

The question is: how does the public perceive this?
About once a year astrologers are given the chance to show their skills and perspective to a broader public: when they are asked for their astrological opinion about the coming year.
But we are using it to offer jokes and entertainment..., strange: aren't there clowns to do that job for us?
If the doctor makes public jokes about his medicines all the time.., then how will you think about paying 100's of $ for a *session* with him?
Why would he take the job of the clown? Is he not confident in his art? Playing safe by joking..?

We claim that we can see from a person's 4P if there is good opportunity for Power, or Wealth, or...
That's the service we offer when we sell a 4P reading.
But our art doesn't seem to work in the case of Hillary Clinton.... astrologers predicted her to win.
At the end of the day, that's what the public sees, regardless if we packaged it as a joke or not...

If we don't take our own art serious, then why they would?

To be or not to be...


Joseph Yu said...

Dear Danny,

Life reading is different from New Year Predictions. The method we use in life reading has a strong theoretical foundation and good practical results. This is no joke.

There are various methods developed to forecast global events using stems and branches, hexagrams, nine stars and even Qi Men Dun Jia charts. None of these is satisfactory. Until I can find a system to do the job with good results, I will not do it.

Since people love this kind of predictions, it is just right to pass the message to people that they should not take it serious. That is why I wrote the new year prediction and with your help, the message is out.

Come to think about this. Obsevatories in the world do a fairly good job in 5 days or 10 days weather forecast. Why don't they predict exactly where and when we expect natural disasters? This is because it is simply unpredictable.

We are serious in our research of metaphysics but before we can do accurate predictions with a new method, we must not pretend to be able to with the technique in our hands today. This is misleading.

In Hong Kong, every year publication on new year predictions is a million dollar business. Providing some free entertainment does not hurt.